🔅 Ethiopia Conflict: Truce Agreed
Today's Issue: Glencore to pay £275m for bribing African officials, and Kilimanjaro's glaciers cannot be save... ☕
Markets
🔻 Nigerian SE: 44,236.70 (-0.10%)
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🔺 Ghana SE: 2,448.88 (+0.20%)
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🔻 US S&P 500: 3,740.83 (-0.50%)
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*Data accurate as of close of markets across the continent
Global Markets:Â US inflation is not over yet, and recent data shows that the Fed's rate hikes have not had the hoped-for impact on American consumers. The labor market is incredibly strong (unemployment is at a 50-year low), and people still aren't pulling back from spending their money. For these reasons, the Fed said it would have to continue with its interest rates increases, a move that would further strengthen the dollar. This, of course, would negatively impact African currencies.
Kenya:Â The board of Kenya Airways says that a planned strike by the union representing more than 400 of the airline's pilots would disrupt financial recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. They also claim it is unjustified. The union gave notice for a strike over disputes involving pensions and accrued back salaries, amongst other complaints. Kenya Airways estimates that losses from the strike would amount to 300 million shillings ($2.5 million) per day.
SECURITY
Ethiopia’s warring sides agree to a permanent cessation of hostilities
What is Happening:Â Â
Ethiopia’s warring sides have agreed to a permanent cessation of hostilities in a conflict believed to have killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions. The announcement was made by African Union chief mediator and former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo.
The A.U. had invited media to what it described as a briefing by Obasanjo, but it was only when the event began, about three hours behind schedule, that it became clear a truce was about to be signed.
The agreement calls for a permanent cease-fire, the disarmament of Tigray forces, and the withdrawal of Ethiopian federal security forces from the Tigray region. It also commits the parties to restoring essential services and unfettered humanitarian access to the Tigray region.Â
The conflict has been ongoing for precisely two years, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government had declared the Tigray authorities a terrorist organization. The agreement lifts that designation.
The agreement is a welcome first step, but the devil will be in the implementation, according to Kenya's former president, Uhuru Kenyatta, who helped facilitate the talks.
The Bigger Picture:
While the agreement is a positive development, it faces significant challenges. First, it is unclear how the agreement will be enforced. Second, Eritrea, which has been fighting alongside Ethiopia, was not part of the peace talks, and it is unclear to what extent it will respect the agreement. Third, forces from Ethiopia’s neighbouring Amhara region also have been fighting Tigray forces, but Amhara representatives were not part of the talks.
Background:
The war stems from a breakdown in relations between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a guerrilla movement turned political party which dominated Ethiopia for 27 years, and Abiy, who was once part of their ruling coalition but whose appointment in 2018 ended the TPLF’s dominance. Escalating tensions in 2018-20, including over Abiy's peace deal with the TPLF's sworn enemy Eritrea, and the TPLF's decision to defy him by holding regional elections in Tigray he had postponed nationwide, tipped the parties into war.Â
ACROSS THE CONTINENT
Other Headlines
🇹🇿 The United Nations has released a report stating that glaciers across the globe, including Kilimanjaro's in Tanzania, will be lost by 2050 due to climate change. The report, which is based on satellite data, found that glaciers in a third of U.N. World Heritage sites will melt within three decades. The report's authors say that the glaciers will melt regardless of the world's actions to combat climate change.
🇳🇬🇨🇲🇬🇶🇸🇸 A UK subsidiary of mining giant Glencore was ordered to pay more than £275 million for bribing officials in African countries, including Nigeria, to secure access to oil. Glencore Energy U.K. admitted to seven corruption charges, including five charges of bribery and two charges of failing to prevent agents from using bribes to secure oil contracts in Equatorial Guinea and South Sudan. The subsidiary was ordered to pay a fine of £182.9 million, with an additional £93.5 million to be confiscated from the company.
🇸🇸 7.8 million people in South Sudan, two-thirds of the population, may face severe food shortages next year due to floods, drought and conflict. The shortages are worse than the country experienced at the height of a civil war in 2013 and 2016. The civil war erupted after independence from Sudan in 2011, and although it is holding, rival factions still threaten the country's peace. The main reasons for the decline in food security are linked to conflict, poor macroeconomic conditions, extreme climate events, and spiralling food and fuel costs, partly due to the Russia-Ukraine war. South Sudan
AROUND THE WORLD
Former Pakistan PM shot and wounded
What Happened?
Imran Khan, Pakistan’s Prime Minister from 2018 to 2020, was shot and wounded in the leg during a protest march in the east of the country.
It is unclear whether the politician was deliberately targeted or if he was hit by indiscriminate gunfire. Members of his PTI party said another four people were hurt in the shooting. Khan was transported to a hospital in Lahore and is reportedly in stable condition.
Mr Khan has been leading a protest march - the second such rally this year - calling for new elections. The government has repeatedly said it will hold elections next year, as planned.
The Big Picture:
Pakistan has a long history of deadly political violence. In the most high-profile case, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated at a public rally in 2007.
The attack on Mr Khan -- a former cricket hero with a strong youth following -- is a severe blow to Pakistan's fragile democracy and a reminder of the volatile nature of the country's politics.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
Proverb of the Day
“A hyena does not change its spots even if it moves to a different forest."
— Malawian Proverb.