🔅 Africa: Less Secure, More Coups
Plus: Yellen in South Africa, Uganda seeks builder/financier for rail link to Kenya, Murder of Eswatini rights activist, And much more… ☕
Photo of the day: Khartoum, Sudan
Markets:
🔺 Nigerian SE: 52,752.96 (+0.29%)
🔺 Johannesburg SE: 80,508.97 (+0.98%)
— Ghana SE: 2,431.24 (0.00%)
🔻 Nairobi SE: 125.81 (-0.65%)
🔺 US S&P 500: 4,045.67 (+0.73%)
🔺 Shanghai Composite: 3,264.81 (+0.76%)
US Markets: The US economy had a surprisingly good 4th quarter, with GDP growth of 2.9%. But don’t be fooled by the number - it’s just masking the fact that domestic demand was at its slowest in 2 and a half years. Why? Higher borrowing costs and fewer people buying goods on credit, among other factors. Most economists think that by the second half of the year, the US will be in a recession. It’s not going to be a full-on financial meltdown, but the Fed is likely to raise rates two more times in the coming months to keep things in check. On the bright side, consumer spending has been solid, buoyed by a strong labor market and pandemic savings. Still, some households are feeling the pinch, especially lower-income ones who’ve already depleted their savings.
*Data accurate as of the close of markets across the continent
GEOPOLITICS
Africa: Less Secure, More Coups
The Mo Ibrahim Foundation has launched the 2022 edition of the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG).
It paints a worrying picture of Africa’s progress in terms of security, the rule of law, human rights and democracy compared to 10 years ago. These indices have deteriorated in more than 30 countries.
First, who is Mo Ibrahim?
Mo Ibrahim is a Sudanese-British businessman who became wealthy through his successful career in the telecommunications industry. He was the founder and CEO of Celtel, a mobile phone company that operated in several African countries. Under his leadership, the company grew rapidly and was eventually sold for over $3 billion. This sale, along with other business ventures, helped to establish him as a billionaire and philanthropist.
He is the founder of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, which focuses on improving governance and leadership in Africa, and the creator of the Mo Ibrahim Index, which measures the quality of governance in African countries. He is also a significant philanthropist and has donated millions of dollars to support education and economic development in Africa.
So what did his report find?
The report found that since 2012, there have been 23 successful or attempted coups, eight of which were in the last two years alone.
It also found that since the COVID-19 pandemic began, government violence against civilians and political unrest has been on the rise, with governments using restrictions to clamp down on dissent. That said, data was only analyzed until the end of 2021, so the full impact of the pandemic still can’t be determined.
In terms of security and the rule of law, the report found that nearly 70% of Africans saw a decrease in their countries in the last decade. South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, Congo, Sudan, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Burundi, Libya, and Equatorial Guinea ranked bottom in terms of security and the rule of law.
Any silver linings?
Mo Ibrahim said there had been improvements in economic, educational and gender equity categories.
The index found that better infrastructure and phone and internet connectivity have improved African economic opportunities since 2012. Health services for children and pregnant women, as well as disease control, had improved, as had education.
The five countries that performed best in good governance were Mauritius, Seychelles, Tunisia, Cape Verde and Botswana. South Sudan was in last place behind Somalia and Eritrea.
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OTHER HEADLINES
Across the Continent
🇺🇬 Uganda’s Big Railway Plan | Uganda’s got big plans, and they’ve asked Turkish firm Yapi Merkezi to help make them a reality. The East African nation wants to build a 170-mile rail link to Kenya—and they want Yapi Merkezi to get the financing. That’s right: Uganda wants Yapi to do the heavy lifting in helping them secure loans from lenders and export credit agencies. Uganda’s already given Yapi the tender papers, hoping to get the whole project going in the next seven months. Fingers crossed it’ll be a smoother ride than their last attempt, which was with Chinese firm China Harbour and Engineering Company Ltd (CHEC), which failed to secure financing for the project.
🇸🇿 Eswatini Rights Activist Killed | Eswatini rights activist Thulani Maseko was tragically killed at home on Sunday, and the South African regional bloc, Sadc, is not happy. They released a statement expressing “deep concern” and calling on the Eswatini government to investigate the matter “swiftly, transparently, and comprehensively.” The US also expressed its condolences and called for an impartial probe. It’s a tough time for Eswatini, which is the continent’s last absolute monarchy and has seen its share of pro-democracy protests over the previous two years.
🇰🇪 Venezuelan Diplomat Guilty of Murder | A Kenyan court found a Venezuelan diplomat guilty of murdering the Latin American nation’s acting ambassador at her home in Nairobi in 2012. Dwight Sagaray, the first secretary at the embassy, seemed to have an issue with the ambassador for taking his job. Judge Roselyn Korir said there was evidence he had tried to interfere with the new ambassador before she was killed, and that he was the “main beneficiary” of the crime. Sagaray will be sentenced at a later date.
🇿🇦 Yellen in South Africa | US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is on a 10-day tour of Africa, and met most recently with South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in Pretoria. The two discussed South Africa’s plans to transition from coal-powered electricity to green energy. Yellen said the US was “proud” to commit to the “energy transition partnership”, and the US has already pledged up to $8.5 billion to fund the country’s shift away from coal. Later, Yellen was expected to meet with President Cyril Ramaphosa and visit a US-owned Ford car assembly plant. But Yellen’s trip is really about shoring up US ties on the continent, as China and Russia have been rapidly increasing their economic and military presence. The US is “having to play catch up” as Africa-China trade has surged 35% in the past year. Yellen’s visit, along with that of UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield and President Biden’s planned visit later this year, is hoped to restore US influence in Africa.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
Proverb of the Day
“Other people's wisdom prevents the king from being called a fool.”
— Nigerian Proverb.
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